PDP members decamping to APC ​are ​”stomach ​politicians​”​ — Niger governor, Aliyu

Governor of Niger State, Mu’azu Aliyu

The Governor of Niger State, Mu’azu Aliyu, has described politicians defecting from the Peoples Democratic Party to the All Progressive Congress as people who are suffering from poverty of integrity, morality and principle.

Mr. Aliyu who was receiving guests at his office Wednesday in Minna, the Niger State capital, said electorates should not be deterred by defections from the PDP adding that those who should worry are members of the APC that will soon have problems of political profiteers in their hands.
“I will rather resign from politics instead of defecting from PDP. Those defecting from PDP based on the outcome of the presidential and National Assembly election lack principles of integrity and morality, they are indeed stomach politicians.”

“For principles of integrity, morality, we have chosen to remain in PDP. I heard people insinuating that I have dumped my party candidate for the APC candidate. It is a lie, I will never do such a thing.”
Speaking on the forthcoming election, he said the accusation by the Niger State APC against the PDP in terms of plans to rig in the April 11 gubernatorial election has shown that “they are indeed the very ones trying to rig and cause civil unrest. On our own side, we will abide by the rule to ensure nobody or party is cheated. The election must indeed reflect the wishes of the people.”

OBITUARY: On March 18, doctors told Oronto Douglas he had a few days to live…The Cable

Oronto Douglas

Oronto Douglas, special adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan on research, documentation and strategy, died in the early hours of Thursday three weeks after his doctors told him he had a few days to live.

He was diagnosed with cancer in 2008 and had been battling the disease since then with “encouraging signs” of improvement, family sources told TheCable. At some stage, he was thought to have survived as the cancer went into remission, but he suffered a relapse in 2011. He had been visibly sick in the last one year, losing weight dramatically and sometimes needing a wheelchair to move around in the last three months.

 Douglas, a trusted aide of Jonathan, travelled to the US in March for his regular check-up and was told by his doctors that he could not survive further medication. “They told him he would die in a matter of days. That was on March 18, 2015. He had to choose between dying in the US and returning to Nigeria. He decided to return home,” the source said. He was said to be in high spirits up till the moments leading to his death, which occurred at 4:58am on Thursday at the State House clinic, Abuja. “You would not believe he was so sick if you listened to him on the phone.

Only if you saw him physically would you know his state. As at Wednesday, he was still working even though he could not move around the house,” the source added. Unlike in 2011 when he went on the nationwide campaign tour of Jonathan, he was not strong enough to participate in the 2015 campaign, and could no longer go to office.

Buhari’s victory has shamed doomsayers’ prediction that Nigeria will break up in 2015 – Gowon

Ex. Head of State, Gen. Yakubu Gowon

Former Head of State, Gen. Yakubu Gowon, said the peaceful conduct of March 28 Presidential poll won by Maj. Gen Muhammadu Buhari(retd.), has shamed doomsayers’ perception that Nigeria will break up in 2015.

“No one will ever repeat that wild and arrogant prediction that Nigeria will go under; those doomsayers have been shamed and Nigeria will grow from strength to strength,” Gowon told NAN in Jos on Monday. While recalling the prediction that the country would disintegrate in 2015, Gowon declared that those that made the prediction did not reckon with Nigeria’s ability to solve its problems.

“The nation has always had the mechanism to tackle its concerns and this election and its peaceful outcome have proved that a united and focused nation would always survive and move toward greatness,” he said.

The former Head of State expressed happiness that the polls were adjudged free and fair by local and international observers, and commended the patience and resilience of the voters, who defied rain and the scorching sun to cast their votes. “During the elections, I visited polling units in Asokoro, Karu, Nyanya, Maitama and Wuse.

The people came early, and in many cases, waited for INEC officials that came late. I was touched by such commitment. “I was also touched by the good spirit and camaraderie amongst the voters as they waited to vote. I was also happy that they were very friendly and did not allow their political differences to tamper with the fact that they all had one destiny,” he said. Gowon also commended INEC officials, especially the NYSC members, for insisting on doing the right thing, and urged Nigerians to keep that spirit so that democratic governance would mature in the country.

Source: Today.ng

Former Head of State, Gen. Yakubu Gowon, said the peaceful conduct of March 28 Presidential poll won by Maj. Gen Muhammadu Buhari(retd.), has shamed doomsayers’ perception that Nigeria will break up in 2015. “No one will ever repeat that wild and arrogant prediction that Nigeria will go under; those doomsayers have been shamed and Nigeria will grow from strength to strength,” Gowon told NAN in Jos on Monday. While recalling the prediction that the country would disintegrate in 2015, Gowon declared that those that made the prediction did not reckon with Nigeria’s ability to solve its problems. “The nation has always had the mechanism to tackle its concerns and this election and its peaceful outcome have proved that a united and focused nation would always survive and move toward greatness,” he said.

Read full story here:

Former Head of State, Gen. Yakubu Gowon, said the peaceful conduct of March 28 Presidential poll won by Maj. Gen Muhammadu Buhari(retd.), has shamed doomsayers’ perception that Nigeria will break up in 2015. “No one will ever repeat that wild and arrogant prediction that Nigeria will go under; those doomsayers have been shamed and Nigeria will grow from strength to strength,” Gowon told NAN in Jos on Monday. While recalling the prediction that the country would disintegrate in 2015, Gowon declared that those that made the prediction did not reckon with Nigeria’s ability to solve its problems. “The nation has always had the mechanism to tackle its concerns and this election and its peaceful outcome have proved that a united and focused nation would always survive and move toward greatness,” he said.

Read full story here:

What’s Good for Democracy is Good for Business..By Tony Elemelu

Tony Elemelu

I am optimistic about Africa and its future. I believe strongly - that a new Africa has begun to emerge - although one cannot dismiss the odd hurdle and challenge along the way.  What’s come to life is a more mature continent aware of its past, proud of its heritage and willing to do more in pursuit of a brighter future.

You may wonder about such unabashed optimism, from someone living and working in a country long perceived as difficult and complex. The simple reason is that today’s Nigeria is a different country. The potential we have long imagined for our nation is now becoming a reality. The economic management of Nigeria has improved over the last decade and our leaders are asking more of themselves and their colleagues in and out of government.

Also the private sector is more self-assured and confident about the new economic policies that have led to steady growth in the past decade. We don’t expect anything fundamental to change irrespective of the outcome of the elections.  For this reason we have demonstrated a greater willingness to partner the government so as to help underpin Nigeria’s growth and prosperity. 

As a business leader, my hope for yesterday’s election was a free, fair and well-managed poll that will increase confidence in the political class, respond to the people and prioritise the development of our economy.

Recently, Nigerians went to the polls, and over the course of 2015, a total of 11 African countries will conduct national-level elections. Free, fair and well-managed elections will increase confidence in Africa’s political class, its politics, people and economies. This will aid the flow of long-term investment, expand opportunities and allow broader economic participation for all Africans, especially our youth and women.

Unless You Impeach God First, You can't remove me - Gov. Fayose Dares Lawmakers

Gov. Ayo Fayose, Ekiti State Governor

Ekiti State Governor, Mr Ayodele Fayose has dismissed the purported impeachment notice issued to him by the All Progressives Congress (APC) lawmakers in the State House of Assembly, saying he was yet to be served any impeachment notice.

Fayose, while speaking at an audience participatory programme; “Meet Your Governor” aired on the State Television, EKTV, Ekiti Radio, Progress FM and NTA, Ado Ekiti today, described those plotting his impeachment as the same enemies of Ekiti State that plotted his exit from office in 2006.
“Nobody served me any impeachment notice. I only saw the notice online like every other person”, he said.

The governor, who described himself as an Israelite said: “I’m like Israel that is in the midst of enemies but will always prevail. Whoever wants to remove me will first have to impeach God.”
He said the APC members were trying to get at him because he wholeheartedly supported President Goodluck Jonathan’s reelection bid.

“They are doing all these just to get at me because of my support for President Jonathan and I have no regret for supporting the president.
“Let me say it again, I have not been served any impeachment notice. The House of Assembly is also on recess and Dr Adewale Omirin is not the speaker of the State House of Assembly.

Video reveals Oba Akiolu of Lagos threatened Igbo residents in Lagos [MUST WATCH]

The Video has emerged where Oba of Lagos, Rilwan Akiolu’s  threatens Igbo residents  of not voting for Akinwunmi Ambode as the next Governor of Lagos.

In the Video above, the Oba clearly warned the Igbo to vote for only the  governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Mr. Akinwumi Ambode, or else they will die in the lagoon Ambode even though the People Democratic Party Candidtate (PDP),  Jimi Agbaje  is a blood relation.

The monarch on Sunday said he was not ready to beg the Igbos and warned them not to repeat their support for presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), President Goodluck Jonathan on March 28.

What Buhari Needs To Succeed – Jonathan

Major General Muhammadu Buhari, President-Elect

Jonathan spoke at the Presidential Villa, Abuja yesterday when he received a delegation of the
Federal Capital Territory residents led by his vice, Mohammed Namadi Sambo, who paid him Easter homage. The president described Easter, as a period of  sacrifice. He said: 

 

“Whenever we talk about this period, the key lesson there is sacrifice. Somebody sacrificed for our own salvation. “Now, Buhari is coming on board; it is not about supporting Buhari or government, but what sacrifice, as individuals, are you willing to make for government and for the nation?”  

 

He asked whether Nigerians would be ready to make the sacrifice of backing Buhari if he should increase Value Added Tax (VAT) from five to 10 percent. There is already a proposal in the medium term expenditure framework now before the National Assembly to increase VAT from five percent.
The President said:

 

 “In the ECOWAS sub-region for example, Nigeria has the lowest VAT, other
countries pay up to 12 percent. “If for instance, Buhari decides to increase VAT from 5 to 10 percent, will Nigerians support him? That is sacrifice, and we must make sacrifice.” The president maintained that no government would survive if the citizens, especially businessmen, refuse to pay tax.“If you are a businessman and you say you are supporting government, but you don’t pay tax; how do you expect that government to survive?
 

That government will not survive,” he said. He recalled that as a deputy governor in Bayelsa State his people used to come to him to pledge their loyalty. He said he often responded, “Don’t tell me you are loyal; tell me you are patriotic to the country and that you believe in Bayelsa State. “To me, whenever I travel to different countries and see things work, those things didn’t fall down
as many people made sacrifice. “Therefore, in Nigeria, people must also be ready to make the required sacrifice. Whoever becomes president is immaterial so long as the citizens are
happy; our children go to school, when they are sick, they go to good hospital and of course, the
economy blossoms. “Nation building depends on the sacrifices of individuals and the patriotism of the citizens.

These are two key elements. “We are talking about Boko Haram or terror; soldiers are dying for us to live, police are dying for us to live. That is sacrifice. As individuals, you don’t need to die, but there are various roles you need to play. You must make sacrifice. “The economy of China was threatened, but they locked up themselves for a period of time. And by the time they opened their doors, they become even a threat to the biggest economy. “Are we ready for that kind of sacrifice for the
government? Whenever we talk of Easter, these are the key lessons of sacrifice”, Jonathan said.
The president reminisced about his years of service from being the deputy governor of Bayelsa State to being the nation’s number one citizen and said: “I think it is enough”.
The president said since 1999, he had been in a cage “being taken care of by the government”.
“For me as an individual, this Easter coincides with the time I’m leaving. But I always say that
I’m one of the luckiest Nigerians. I’m yet to see somebody luckier than me. From 1999, I was in
the hands of government for 16 years.
“I was in a cage, being taken care of by the government. From May 29, 1999 to date; 16 good
years! I think it is enough and I am happy. Help me to thank God for that ...Today is a glorious day for me.”

Those in the delegation were Secretary to the Government of the Federation Anyim Pius Anyim;
Chief of Staff Jones Arogbofa; Head of Service Danladi Kifasi; Archbishop of the Anglican Church
of Nigeria Most Rev. Nicholas Okoh; Catholic Archbishop of Abuja Cardinal John Onaiyekan;
Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Christian Pilgrims Commission John Kennedy-Opara; Chief
Imam of the National Mosque Alhaji MuhammedMusa, among others.

Source: Dailytrust

What Buhari Needs To Succeed – Jonathan

Major General Muhammadu Buhari, President-Elect

Jonathan spoke at the Presidential Villa, Abuja yesterday when he received a delegation of the
Federal Capital Territory residents led by his vice, Mohammed Namadi Sambo, who paid him Easter homage. The president described Easter, as a period of  sacrifice. He said: 

 

“Whenever we talk about this period, the key lesson there is sacrifice. Somebody sacrificed for our own salvation. “Now, Buhari is coming on board; it is not about supporting Buhari or government, but what sacrifice, as individuals, are you willing to make for government and for the nation?”  

 

He asked whether Nigerians would be ready to make the sacrifice of backing Buhari if he should increase Value Added Tax (VAT) from five to 10 percent. There is already a proposal in the medium term expenditure framework now before the National Assembly to increase VAT from five percent.
The President said:

 

 “In the ECOWAS sub-region for example, Nigeria has the lowest VAT, other
countries pay up to 12 percent. “If for instance, Buhari decides to increase VAT from 5 to 10 percent, will Nigerians support him? That is sacrifice, and we must make sacrifice.” The president maintained that no government would survive if the citizens, especially businessmen, refuse to pay tax.“If you are a businessman and you say you are supporting government, but you don’t pay tax; how do you expect that government to survive?
 

That government will not survive,” he said. He recalled that as a deputy governor in Bayelsa State his people used to come to him to pledge their loyalty. He said he often responded, “Don’t tell me you are loyal; tell me you are patriotic to the country and that you believe in Bayelsa State. “To me, whenever I travel to different countries and see things work, those things didn’t fall down
as many people made sacrifice. “Therefore, in Nigeria, people must also be ready to make the required sacrifice. Whoever becomes president is immaterial so long as the citizens are
happy; our children go to school, when they are sick, they go to good hospital and of course, the
economy blossoms. “Nation building depends on the sacrifices of individuals and the patriotism of the citizens.

Five Things General Buhari Should Do If Elected President

No one is sure what the outcome of the Nigerian elections will be. In recent days the state-by-state projections have multiplied, occupying the front pages of major Nigerian newspapers. The opposition believes that had the elections held as originally scheduled, in February, before a controversial postponement, General Muhammadu Buhari would have won comfortably over president Goodluck Jonathan.

But six weeks, in politics, is an eternity. Since the postponement the momentum has swung away from Buhari’s All Progressives Congress, towards the ruling Peoples Democratic Party. What is unclear is the extent to which the gap between the two parties – if indeed there was any – has narrowed.

There is understandable nervousness regarding these elections, never before now, it seems, have the stakes been this high. If the election takes place as planned (there are a number of court cases that appear aimed at scuttling it) and is not attended by a stalemate, and Buhari is declared winner by the electoral commission, here are five things the new President should – or will have to – do:

1. Apologize

Thirty years ago Buhari and his deputy, the late Tunde Idiagbon, ran the country as stern, unsmiling, bordering-on-ruthless military generals. They jailed hundreds of politicians (a good number of them unfairly; such was the blanket nature of the clampdown), muzzled the press, retroactively instituted the death sentence for drug trafficking (resulting in the execution of three convicted persons), and generally presided over an increasingly stifling atmosphere. While they may have had good intentions – cleaning up in the wake of a corrupt and inept set of politicians – and while it is important to understand that a dictatorship, by its very nature, requires dictatorial action, I still think that Buhari owes some people, or groups of persons, an apology; a symbolic action to turn the page on a past that was as marked by error as it was by its idealism. People like Adeyemi Adefulu and Tinuoye Shoneyin, who insist the Buhari regime unjustly treated him – even while taking their place on a growing list of Buhari victims who have since forgiven him and are now championing his candidacy. Shoneyin’s daughter Lola, a writer, is even on Buhari’s campaign team and has written on this. Adefulu says: “I [would] still like Buhari to vocalize an apology and offer some succour to people like me whom his government brutalized in the past. It is the least he can do. To do so is not weakness. Indeed, it is strength to admit the mistakes of the past and to promote national reconciliation.”

2. Assert
There will be hundreds of appointments to be made, starting May 29 – ministers, special advisers, senior special assistants, special assistants, ambassadors, members of governing boards for tens of federal government bodies, possibly even new leadership for the military and police. Much of the attention will be on his choice of chief of staff, finance and petroleum ministers, and his economic management team.

In his book, The Sixteen ‘Sins’ of General Muhammadu Buhari, Tam David-West, Buhari’s minister of petroleum during his days as military head of state, and an enduring supporter, says his appointment as a minister came as a surprise; based purely on his resume and his reputation. While Buhari’s pedigree suggests that in making his key appointments merit will stubbornly trump political pressure, it is important to note that he is also now, in his most recent incarnation as presidential candidate of a motley coalition of politicians, a much more pragmatic player than ever before.

Nigerians will also be expecting him to provide moral authority and hands-on leadership to the team. He has himself hinted, in a recent letter to Nigerians, of his desire to ensure “the Federal Executive Council, which has been turned to a weekly session of contract bazaar, will concentrate on its principal function of policy making.”

3. Assess

Four years of $100 plus per oil barrel prices have come to an end, and Nigeria hasn’t got very much to show for it; understandable when you consider that the last four years have been awash with stories of dodgy oil deals and large-scale oil bunkering. Buhari’s first task will be to assess just how bad things are. (We already have an idea, Nigeria is expected to earn, this year, only two thirds of what it earned in oil revenues last year). In recent speeches Buhari has repeatedly hinted at drawing a line between past and present, by which he means restricting his anti-corruption clampdown to infractions that occur on his watch as president, and not those that preceded him. This seemingly mollifying stance is likely to have arisen on account of the frenzy with which the ruling party has sought to portray him as being still as obsessed with sending perceived opponents to jail as he was three decades ago. As a civilian President he will probably realize that he has to decide, on a case-by-case basis, where that line-drawing will apply, and where it will not.

Finally, Nigerians deserve, within Buhari’s first hundred days in office, a State of the Nation Address, in which he will provide an honest and detailed view of the country’s financial situation. Which leads to the next point:

4. Articulate

The entire system of government communication requires overhauling. Currently it’s divided among several officials, including a minister of information, a special adviser to the president on media, and any number of presidential assistants and special assistants assigned to specific functions like “social media”, “new media” and “public affairs. The result is an alarming incoherence, visible every time you open a newspaper, or your Twitter feed. As president Buhari should immediately take steps to streamline government communications, and create a unified, hierarchical structure in which all roles and responsibilities are clarified. He may also want to consider creating a central management team for government communications, similar in intent and style to the one former president Obasanjo created for the economy.

5. Attack

Boko Haram has in the last few years proven to be the ultimate disciplinarian of the Nigerian state. If elected, Buhari should take immediate steps to shore up the confidence and capacity of the Nigerian military. His opponents have worked hard at labeling him an Islamic fundamentalist, an apologist for Sharia Islamic law, and even a Boko Haram sympathiser. On the strength of available evidence – including testimonials, and his record as Head of State – the allegations are implausible. In his book Honour For Sale, Debo Bashorun, one-time Nigerian presidential spokesperson (during the regime of military dictator Ibrahim Babangida, who overthrew Buhari in August 1985) suggests that Babangida, not Buhari, was the one who tolerated religious fundamentalism.

 Bashorun writes of the “sudden re-emergence” during Babangida’s time, of “self-proclaimed clerics and Islamic fundamentalists whose nocturnal and divisive activities had earlier been effectively curtailed during the Buhari/Idiagbon administration.” As head of state Buhari showed little mercy or tolerance towards religious extremists or militant challengers of the Nigerian state whether they were Chadian bandits laying siege to the northeast at that time Boko Haram, or the rump of the Maitatsine sect, a 1980s precursor of Boko Haram. A similar approach to Boko Haram will be required.

Source: http://qz.com/369673/the-five-things-buhari-should-do-if-nigeria-elects-him-president-this-weekend/

Five Things General Buhari Should Do If Elected President

No one is sure what the outcome of the Nigerian elections will be. In recent days the state-by-state projections have multiplied, occupying the front pages of major Nigerian newspapers. The opposition believes that had the elections held as originally scheduled, in February, before a controversial postponement, General Muhammadu Buhari would have won comfortably over president Goodluck Jonathan.

But six weeks, in politics, is an eternity. Since the postponement the momentum has swung away from Buhari’s All Progressives Congress, towards the ruling Peoples Democratic Party. What is unclear is the extent to which the gap between the two parties – if indeed there was any – has narrowed.

There is understandable nervousness regarding these elections, never before now, it seems, have the stakes been this high. If the election takes place as planned (there are a number of court cases that appear aimed at scuttling it) and is not attended by a stalemate, and Buhari is declared winner by the electoral commission, here are five things the new President should – or will have to – do:

1. Apologize

Thirty years ago Buhari and his deputy, the late Tunde Idiagbon, ran the country as stern, unsmiling, bordering-on-ruthless military generals. They jailed hundreds of politicians (a good number of them unfairly; such was the blanket nature of the clampdown), muzzled the press, retroactively instituted the death sentence for drug trafficking (resulting in the execution of three convicted persons), and generally presided over an increasingly stifling atmosphere. While they may have had good intentions – cleaning up in the wake of a corrupt and inept set of politicians – and while it is important to understand that a dictatorship, by its very nature, requires dictatorial action, I still think that Buhari owes some people, or groups of persons, an apology; a symbolic action to turn the page on a past that was as marked by error as it was by its idealism. People like Adeyemi Adefulu and Tinuoye Shoneyin, who insist the Buhari regime unjustly treated him – even while taking their place on a growing list of Buhari victims who have since forgiven him and are now championing his candidacy. Shoneyin’s daughter Lola, a writer, is even on Buhari’s campaign team and has written on this. Adefulu says: “I [would] still like Buhari to vocalize an apology and offer some succour to people like me whom his government brutalized in the past. It is the least he can do. To do so is not weakness. Indeed, it is strength to admit the mistakes of the past and to promote national reconciliation.”

2. Assert
There will be hundreds of appointments to be made, starting May 29 – ministers, special advisers, senior special assistants, special assistants, ambassadors, members of governing boards for tens of federal government bodies, possibly even new leadership for the military and police. Much of the attention will be on his choice of chief of staff, finance and petroleum ministers, and his economic management team.

Five Reasons Why Jonathan Lost - BBC

President Goodluck Jonathan

Nigerians are so used to the idea that an incumbent should win presidential elections that President Goodluck Jonathan's failure to beat Gen Muhammadu Buhari needs some explaining. Here are five reasons why the opposition won:

1: Harder to rig
Past elections have been marred by serious irregularities and suspicions of rigging. In 2007 observers said the presidential poll was not "credible". In 2011 the vote was considered to be better run but observers said that rigging and fraud still took place.
This time the electoral commission took more steps to prevent rigging, including new biometric voters cards.
Also President Jonathan's party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), had lost control of some key states which meant it could not control the electoral process there.

2: Boko Haram and security
The Nigerian army has made some recent gains against Boko Haram, but not enough to convince Nigerians
The election took place against the background of an Islamist insurgency in the north-east of the country. The Boko Haram militant group has killed 20,000 people and forced some three million others from their homes and President Jonathan was criticised for not getting to grips with this.
The poll was delayed for six weeks to give time for the security situation to improve, but even though most areas controlled by Boko Haram were recaptured, it seems to have come too late for many people.

3: United opposition, crumbling PDP

The extra six weeks of vigorous campaigning by the PDP was not enough to halt the slide in the party's fortunes
The PDP has been described as an election-winning machine. When it was created it united a northern elite with leading politicians from the south, but that alliance has broken up and the party lost some key figures. Even former President Olusegun Obasanjo came out against Mr Jonathan.
At the same time, the opposition managed to unite under the All Progressives Congress (APC) banner. The last six weeks of desperate and dirty campaigning, in which the APC responded in kind, was not enough to turn the tide.

4: Economy
Nigeria's economy is growing but the wealth is not being spread around
Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer and its largest economy, but many fail to feel the benefits with nearly half the population living below the poverty line. Continued corruption is seen as partly being to blame.
National income is due to grow by more than 5% this year and next year, but people did not seem in the mood to thank Mr Jonathan for this.

5: Time for a change
APC supporters chanted "change" wherever they went and it seems to have caught the mood. The PDP has been in power since the end of military rule in 1999, and 2015 is the year that Nigerians decided that someone else should have a go at sorting things out.

President-elect Buhari now has to prove he really can change things.

Source: BBC

Five Reasons Why Jonathan Lost - BBC

President Goodluck Jonathan

Nigerians are so used to the idea that an incumbent should win presidential elections that President Goodluck Jonathan's failure to beat Gen Muhammadu Buhari needs some explaining. Here are five reasons why the opposition won:

1: Harder to rig
Past elections have been marred by serious irregularities and suspicions of rigging. In 2007 observers said the presidential poll was not "credible". In 2011 the vote was considered to be better run but observers said that rigging and fraud still took place.
This time the electoral commission took more steps to prevent rigging, including new biometric voters cards.
Also President Jonathan's party, the People's Democratic Party (PDP), had lost control of some key states which meant it could not control the electoral process there.

2: Boko Haram and security
The Nigerian army has made some recent gains against Boko Haram, but not enough to convince Nigerians
The election took place against the background of an Islamist insurgency in the north-east of the country. The Boko Haram militant group has killed 20,000 people and forced some three million others from their homes and President Jonathan was criticised for not getting to grips with this.
The poll was delayed for six weeks to give time for the security situation to improve, but even though most areas controlled by Boko Haram were recaptured, it seems to have come too late for many people.

3: United opposition, crumbling PDP

The extra six weeks of vigorous campaigning by the PDP was not enough to halt the slide in the party's fortunes
The PDP has been described as an election-winning machine. When it was created it united a northern elite with leading politicians from the south, but that alliance has broken up and the party lost some key figures. Even former President Olusegun Obasanjo came out against Mr Jonathan.

#NigeriaDecides: Video exposes INEC officials colluding with PDP to rig elections - Premiumtimes

A shocking video recorded for PREMIUM TIMES in Polling Units 009, 010 and 011 at Oniong West Ward 1, Onna Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State, has exposed an official of the Independent National Electoral Commission colluding with supporters of the Peoples Democratic Party in the area to rig the presidential and national assembly election in favour of the party.

The ugly incident happened in the village square – Ikot Eko Ibon village – within the full glare of the villagers.
Former Secretary to the Federal Government, Obong Ufot Ekaette and wife, Eme Ekaette, a former senator, are from the area.

But they did not show up for voting on Saturday. Some of those who spoke to PREMIUM TIMES in the area said the Ekaettes may have stayed away from voting because of their disappointment with the PDP and Governor Godswill Akpabio’s leadership style.
INEC officials were through with voters’ accreditation as early as 1:30PM in the three units, but refused to commence voting until some PDP chieftains arrived around 4pm.

The PDP chieftains, who apparently were working in agreement with the INEC officials in the units, immediately ordered all the voters to move away from the polling centre.
In the midst of the confusion that ensued, gunshot was fired within the polling centre, prompting the voters who were mostly old men and women from the village to run away to safety.
The PDP supporters then had a field day thumb-printing ballot papers, under the supervision of INEC officials.


Security officials were not deployed in the three units. It is unclear if it is deliberate to allow the PDP supporters execute their plans without molestation.
One of the INEC officials in the units told PREMIUM TIMES he and his colleagues were under pressure from their ‘boss’ to assist the PDP win the elections, but didn’t however explain who the boss was.

The PDP governorship candidate, Udom Emmanuel, is from Onna Local Government Area where the rigging captured on the video took place.
In other parts of Akwa Ibom state, especially in areas considered as APC strongholds, there were reported cases of non-availability of election result sheets at the polling units.
The APC governorship candidate, Umana Umana objected to INEC accreditation and election taking place in his ward at Ndiya, Nsit Ubium Local Government Area, because election result sheets were not available.

The Akwa Ibom state chapter of the APC has petitioned INEC chairman, Attahiru Jega, calling for fresh election in the state.
On Monday, the APC governorship candidate led a peaceful protest to INEC office in Uyo calling for the cancellation of the poll, describing it as a farce.
The protesters stormed the INEC office while the collation of the presidential election result was going on.

Mr. Umana said the party would not accept the results of Saturday’s elections held in the state.
He said the party, after a review of field reports on the elections across the state, had come to the conclusion that the elections be cancelled.
The People’s Democratic Movement’s candidate for the House of Representatives (Ikot Ekpene Federal Constituency), Anny Asikpo, has made similar allegation of election result sheets not being available during the election.

“We have 365 polling units, but as I speak to you I have not seen nor know how the result sheets for yesterday’s election look like because everything was carted away by the PDP to an unknown destination. There was no election in Ikot Ekpene Senatorial District,” Dr. Asikpo told a local radio station in Akwa Ibom State, Planet FM, on telephone during a live phone-in programme on Sunday.

Source: Premiumtimes

#NigeriaDecides: Video exposes INEC officials colluding with PDP to rig elections - Premiumtimes

A shocking video recorded for PREMIUM TIMES in Polling Units 009, 010 and 011 at Oniong West Ward 1, Onna Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State, has exposed an official of the Independent National Electoral Commission colluding with supporters of the Peoples Democratic Party in the area to rig the presidential and national assembly election in favour of the party.

The ugly incident happened in the village square – Ikot Eko Ibon village – within the full glare of the villagers.
Former Secretary to the Federal Government, Obong Ufot Ekaette and wife, Eme Ekaette, a former senator, are from the area.

But they did not show up for voting on Saturday. Some of those who spoke to PREMIUM TIMES in the area said the Ekaettes may have stayed away from voting because of their disappointment with the PDP and Governor Godswill Akpabio’s leadership style.
INEC officials were through with voters’ accreditation as early as 1:30PM in the three units, but refused to commence voting until some PDP chieftains arrived around 4pm.

The PDP chieftains, who apparently were working in agreement with the INEC officials in the units, immediately ordered all the voters to move away from the polling centre.
In the midst of the confusion that ensued, gunshot was fired within the polling centre, prompting the voters who were mostly old men and women from the village to run away to safety.
The PDP supporters then had a field day thumb-printing ballot papers, under the supervision of INEC officials.

Problem Beyond The Polls ...By Femi Macualay

Two days after the country’s presidential poll, the  immortal lines from Shakespeare’s Macbeth are relevant : “When the hurlyburly’s done – When the battle’s lost and won.”  Against the background of the continuing anti-terror battle, the hurly-burly is certainly not done.

News of the latest garland for Boko Haram, the Islamist guerilla force that has terrorised the country since 2009, deserves attention.  The group’s insurgency was the fourth deadliest conflict in the world in 2014 and was responsible for 11, 529 deaths, according to a release by an international think tank, the Project for the Study of the 21st Century. It is noteworthy that the think tank said the figure of fatalities could be underestimated.

However, the estimation of the human suffering resulting from the destructive imagination and vision of the insurgents is more accurate. “We are seeing tremendous suffering,” UN Assistant Secretary General Robert Piper was quoted as saying. He continued: “We estimate that only about 20 percent of agricultural land in Borno State (the hardest-hit area) was harvested last season.” Piper, the coordinator of the UN’s humanitarian work in Africa’s Sahel region, pointed out that the situation “leaves a massive deficit.”

Also, Piper noted that there were “dramatic rates of acute malnutrition” among the displaced children in Nigeria. In statistical terms, he highlighted a recent survey of displaced children around Maiduguri, the Borno State capital, which showed that over 35 percent of them were malnourished. “That is very, very high,” he was quoted as saying.

This picture of disturbing death and dying demonstrates that the hurly-burly is not done and the battle has not been lost and won.  Shockingly, what many internally displaced persons have gone through, especially those uprooted by Boko Haram, came to light via a statement by the Director of Information, The Catholic Church Diocese of Maiduguri, Rev. Fr. Gideon Obasogie. He said: “A good number of those trapped around the Cameroonian borders are gradually finding their way into Maiduguri. Counting their ordeals, some will tell you how they fed on grass and insects.








Relevant to this appalling picture is the information by the Director-General, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), Mr. Sani Sidi, at last year’s opening of its annual consultative meeting with the heads of States Emergency Management Agencies. Sidi said about 734,062 persons were internally displaced by conflicts and disasters in various parts of the country; 676, 975 of them were displaced by conflicts and 66,087 by natural disasters. It is significant that he pointed out:

“Disaster occurrences and the number of affected people have risen significantly in recent years.”
It is not clear how NEMA arrived at these figures, and it is worth mentioning that they are a far cry from the statistics publicised by the 2014 Report of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre and the Norwegian Refugee Council, which indicate that out of 33 million internal refugees across the world, about 3.3 million Nigerians are internally displaced because of the Boko Haram insurgency in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe states.

The yawning gap between the positions of the two bodies concerning the number of dislodged victims of the six-year-old violent campaign by Islamist terrorists in the affected areas is a cause for concern because it suggests that the scale of the problem may not have been captured and is likely to be beyond the range of the available figures.

How devastating and disruptive Boko Haram has become is clear from its influence on the controversial rescheduling of the general elections.  To properly grasp the group’s role, it is useful to quote the February 7 statement by the Chairman, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof Attahiru Jega, on why the elections were postponed a week to the first vote.

 According to Jega, “Last Wednesday, which was a day before the Council of State meeting, the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA) wrote a letter to the Commission, drawing attention to recent developments in four Northeast states of Borno, Yobe, Adamawa and Gombe currently experiencing the challenge of insurgency. The letter stated that security could not be guaranteed during the proposed period in February for the general elections.”

Jega continued: “This advisory was reinforced at the Council of State meeting on Thursday where the NSA and all the Armed Services and Intelligence Chiefs unanimously reiterated that the safety and security of our operations cannot be guaranteed, and that the Security Services needed at least six weeks within which to conclude a major military operation against the insurgency in the Northeast; and that during this operation, the military will be concentrating its attention in the theatre of operations such that they may not be able to provide the traditional support they render to the Police and other agencies during elections.”

It is not surprising that the magical and illogical six-week time frame set for the conquest of insurgents who have carried out terroristic activities since 2009 has passed with Boko Haram still threatening and frightening. Optimism won’t win the terror war, no matter how well-dressed.  The naked pessimism of the people is unmistakable.

The reports of recaptured territories by the country’s troops in a regional collaboration with four neighbouring nations, Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, have been captivating largely because the people never knew exactly what had been captured. Reports said the contributions to the multi-national force total 8, 700 individuals and its objective is to “foster a safe and secure environment in the impacted regions.”

With the eventual adoption of a frontal attack, it is comical that National Security Adviser Col Sambo Dasuki (retd) last year introduced a simplistic angle to the anti-terror campaign.  Dasuki’s amazing “Roll out of Nigeria’s Soft Approach to Counter Terrorism”, whatever its theoretical merits, represented an ill-defined all-inclusive method. According to him, “The soft approach provides us with a frame-work that identifies the roles and responsibilities of every segment of our society: the governors, local council chairmen, national and state assembly members, political parties, trade unions, the private sector, traditional institutions, ministers and other government officials, academics, in fact, a ‘whole-of-society’ approach that involves everyone vertically and horizontally to confront violent extremism.”  It was a mystifying approach and an exaggerated perspective that glossed over the fundamental point, which is, confronting and crushing terrorism with the logic of superior sovereignty.

Source: The Nation

Problem Beyond The Polls ...By Femi Macualay

Two days after the country’s presidential poll, the  immortal lines from Shakespeare’s Macbeth are relevant : “When the hurlyburly’s done – When the battle’s lost and won.”  Against the background of the continuing anti-terror battle, the hurly-burly is certainly not done.

News of the latest garland for Boko Haram, the Islamist guerilla force that has terrorised the country since 2009, deserves attention.  The group’s insurgency was the fourth deadliest conflict in the world in 2014 and was responsible for 11, 529 deaths, according to a release by an international think tank, the Project for the Study of the 21st Century. It is noteworthy that the think tank said the figure of fatalities could be underestimated.

However, the estimation of the human suffering resulting from the destructive imagination and vision of the insurgents is more accurate. “We are seeing tremendous suffering,” UN Assistant Secretary General Robert Piper was quoted as saying. He continued: “We estimate that only about 20 percent of agricultural land in Borno State (the hardest-hit area) was harvested last season.” Piper, the coordinator of the UN’s humanitarian work in Africa’s Sahel region, pointed out that the situation “leaves a massive deficit.”

Also, Piper noted that there were “dramatic rates of acute malnutrition” among the displaced children in Nigeria. In statistical terms, he highlighted a recent survey of displaced children around Maiduguri, the Borno State capital, which showed that over 35 percent of them were malnourished. “That is very, very high,” he was quoted as saying.

This picture of disturbing death and dying demonstrates that the hurly-burly is not done and the battle has not been lost and won.  Shockingly, what many internally displaced persons have gone through, especially those uprooted by Boko Haram, came to light via a statement by the Director of Information, The Catholic Church Diocese of Maiduguri, Rev. Fr. Gideon Obasogie. He said: “A good number of those trapped around the Cameroonian borders are gradually finding their way into Maiduguri. Counting their ordeals, some will tell you how they fed on grass and insects.

Main factor against Jonathan’s re-election.. By Muyiwa Adetiba

President Good luck Jonathan

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the factors that would likely inhibit General Muhammadu Buhari from occupying Aso Rock in June. The reaction I got surprised me. People I had not heard from in a long while called to register their views.
And if their comments are anything to go by, then it’s safe to say that President Jonathan still has a lot of sympathisers in the middle and upper echelons of the society. The comments online also went on and on and at a stage I had to stop reading.
Vanguard later listed the article as one of the most commented upon news items of the day with comments reaching as high as 300.Most of the comments were emotional and illogical; some were abusive; but we still had quite a few that put good arguments across on both sides. A couple of people actually challenged me to flip the coin and write about the factors against Jonathan. I am rising to that challenge today.

Many of the factors listed against Buhari can also in truth, be used against Jonathan. Some of these are religious and geo-political factors. Then there are the political and sectional interest groups, the scavengers who believe it will be their turn to ‘make it’ with an APC government. Then of course, the kingmakers who pretend to act in the national interest, but in truth serve to perpetuate the elite interest of wealth appropriation. They might decide that they have had enough of Jonathan and move against him.INEC also, if it decides to be a biased umpire.

Now we come to specifics. Most incumbents all over the world rerun on the strength of their achievements in the first term. Many swim or sink on the scale of what they promise and what they deliver. Fashola of Lagos State was a clear example of that in recent times. Whatever is said about him, there is no doubt that he took governance seriously and when he ran foul of his godfather, it was the magnitude of his achievements that stood him in good stead.

It is curious therefore that the Jonathan administration has not harped on its promises and achievements. Is it because they are more of disappointments than achievements? Or at best over hyped deliverables? He promised for example, to makepower failure a thing of the past by 2015. My generator tells me he has not delivered on that.

He promised to solve youth unemployment. The teeming youths on the streets tell a different story. He promised to change the way governance had been and promote transparency. The gap between the very rich and the very poor and the oil subsidy scam are unsavoury testimonies of his performance. Then the hyped achievements; the administration claimed to have delivered 20,000 kilo-meters of roads. It didn’t say however if they were new roads or resurfaced ones. I don’t travel much on Nigerian roads and so can’t really confirm the veracity of the claims.

But last October, I spent eight hours to get to Ibadan instead of an hour. This road is listed as one of his major achievements. Much has been said about our airports; but none is befitting of the largest economy in Africa as none even now, is among the best ten in Africa. As for the trains, we all know what a modern train is capable of. Can any progressive describe what we have now as belonging to the 21st century? As for the universities, not one despite the score that has been added, rates among the first twenty in Africa. One would expect a PhD holder to know that a building does not a university make. The point is made by now I think, that his performance is a factor against him.

Most incumbents are also judged by how they react to crises. Or out of the norm events that require courage or moral leadership. President Bush senior was acclaimed for his international handling of the Iraq/Kuwait crisis for example. President Clinton also got good ratings for the way he handled the 9/11 crisis while President Bush junior got a got a thumps down for the way he handled the New Orleans flood crisis. Will the handling of Boko Haram crisis give Mr Jonathan a plus or a minus?

Finally, the biggest challenge for Mr Jonathan will be the economy and it is not peculiar to him alone. A lot of heads of governments have been swept aside on account of their nations’ economy. The popular refrain all over the world seems to be ‘is your life better now than it was four years ago?’ Gordon Brown, George Bush Snr, and even the Republican Party were all swept aside on account of the down turn in the economy under them while Obama got re-elected because of the upward swing in the US economy.The phrase ‘Osama is dead and General Motors is alive’ resonated well with the electorate.

The Nigerian economy is in a bad shape and it is likely to get worse because nobody is doing anything to arrest the situation. The government is either in denial or it is lying to us because money is being spent on the election as if there is no tomorrow. Meanwhile, jobs are already being lost and more will be lost. The social media is awash with stories of multinationals laying off staff in tens and hundreds. The Naira is weakening by the day. Poverty is rising almost by the second. Everywhere you look, it is bleak with the only bright spot being agriculture which really has not translated into cheaper food. The leadership cannot absolve itself from blame; first because the buck stops there and second because it had ample warning.

A friend said that corruption is not just the main problem afflicting Nigeria, it is the only problem. I tend to agree because in Nigeria, if you fix corruption you will fix the economy.Only a blindfolded fool will say that the economy does not need to be fixed. It is likely from June, after the election would have been won and lost, that any attempt to fix the economy will start. Import Duty will likely increase as will Value Added Tax. Other creative forms of taxation will also be found in order to shore up the revenue base. Will the revenue be used to feed the ravenous appetite of the executives and their friends or will it flow to where it is really needed? Your guess is as good as mine.

But I am getting ahead of myself. We are talking March 28 and the factors against Jonathan. Like Bill Clinton’s team told George Bush Snr during the US presidential campaign ‘It’s the economy stupid”.

Source: Vanguard

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the factors that would likely inhibit General Muhammadu Buhari from occupying Aso Rock in June. The reaction I got surprised me. People I had not heard from in a long while called to register their views.
And if their comments are anything to go by, then it’s safe to say that President Jonathan still has a lot of sympathisers in the middle and upper echelons of the society. The comments online also went on and on and at a stage I had to stop reading.
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/main-factor-against-jonathans-re-election/#sthash.p4DLVw4U.dpuf

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the factors that would likely inhibit General Muhammadu Buhari from occupying Aso Rock in June. The reaction I got surprised me. People I had not heard from in a long while called to register their views.
And if their comments are anything to go by, then it’s safe to say that President Jonathan still has a lot of sympathisers in the middle and upper echelons of the society. The comments online also went on and on and at a stage I had to stop reading.
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/main-factor-against-jonathans-re-election/#sthash.p4DLVw4U.dpuf

Main factor against Jonathan’s re-election.. By Muyiwa Adetiba

President Good luck Jonathan

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the factors that would likely inhibit General Muhammadu Buhari from occupying Aso Rock in June. The reaction I got surprised me. People I had not heard from in a long while called to register their views.
And if their comments are anything to go by, then it’s safe to say that President Jonathan still has a lot of sympathisers in the middle and upper echelons of the society. The comments online also went on and on and at a stage I had to stop reading.
Vanguard later listed the article as one of the most commented upon news items of the day with comments reaching as high as 300.Most of the comments were emotional and illogical; some were abusive; but we still had quite a few that put good arguments across on both sides. A couple of people actually challenged me to flip the coin and write about the factors against Jonathan. I am rising to that challenge today.

Many of the factors listed against Buhari can also in truth, be used against Jonathan. Some of these are religious and geo-political factors. Then there are the political and sectional interest groups, the scavengers who believe it will be their turn to ‘make it’ with an APC government. Then of course, the kingmakers who pretend to act in the national interest, but in truth serve to perpetuate the elite interest of wealth appropriation. They might decide that they have had enough of Jonathan and move against him.INEC also, if it decides to be a biased umpire.

Now we come to specifics. Most incumbents all over the world rerun on the strength of their achievements in the first term. Many swim or sink on the scale of what they promise and what they deliver. Fashola of Lagos State was a clear example of that in recent times. Whatever is said about him, there is no doubt that he took governance seriously and when he ran foul of his godfather, it was the magnitude of his achievements that stood him in good stead.

Nigerian Elections: What If Buhari Wins? By Max Siollun

Gen. Muhammadu Buhari

As the north of the country suffers at the hands of Boko Haram one former military ruler, known for his ‘iron fist’, is enjoying huge levels of support for his presidential bid. Max Siollun assesses what might happen if he wins

With only two weeks to go until the most closely contested presidential election in Nigeria’s history, the biggest issue on the agenda is security. From Boko Haram to the instability of the oil-producing Niger Delta, the political fight between incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and the lead opposition candidate, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, revolves around who will ensure peace and stability.

Buhari is relying on his credentials as a retired general and former military ruler to convince the electorate that he is the man to end the violent Boko Haram insurgency that has killed more than 10,000 Nigerians and displaced 1.5 million others.

But what would Nigeria be like under a Buhari presidency? He has vowed to take the fight to Boko Haram, crush the sect, and “lead from the front”. Expectations of the stern and resolute general are sky high – many think he is tailor made to end Nigeria’s insecurity, but is he the reformed democrat he claims to be?

Boko Haram
The rhetoric of his campaign suggests that the defence policy is likely to change greatly under a Buhari presidency
Senior security figures have repeatedly stated that there is no military solution to the insurgency, and that the government must address the socio-economic causes of Boko Haram. Nigeria’s former chief of defence staff General Martin Luther Agwai has said: “You can never solve any of these problems with military solutions … it is a political issue; it is a social issue; it is an economic issue, and until these issues are addressed, the military can never give you a solution.”

Buhari has dealt with insecurity in Nigeria before. In 1983 he led an army unit that drove out Chadian rebels who had made incursions over the north-eastern Nigerian border. In an ironic reversal of fortunes, the Chadian army is now helping Nigeria to fight Boko Haram insurgents in the same corner of Nigeria. In response, Buhari has called the current Nigerian government’s reliance on assistance from a much poorer country like Chad a “big disgrace”.

Chadian soldiers gather near the Nigerian town of Gamboru.
The current government’s security forces have made tentative steps in the direction of a “soft approach to countering terrorism”. The national security adviser Lt Colonel Sambo Dasuki appointed Dr Fatima Akilu, a psychologist, to work as the director of behavioural analysis and strategic communication in his office. Last year it was announced that Akilu had designed a programme for de-radicalising and rehabilitating militants, and a communication strategy to counter Boko Haram’s narrative. However initiatives such as this will take years or decades to have effect, and the Nigerian public is not patient enough for incremental progress.

The rhetoric of Buhari’s campaign suggests that the defence policy is likely to change greatly if he were to win the election. His tough-talking promises to confront Boko Haram resonate with the Nigerian public. He has said he “will not tolerate insurgency, sabotage of the economy” and, in reference to the instability in the Niger Delta, the “the blowing up of installations, by stealing crude and so on ... All these things will be things of the past.”

If Buhari comes to power Dasuki and his colleague Lt General Aliyu Mohammed, the minister of defence, are likely to find themselves unemployed. Both men were key figures in the military palace coup that overthrew Buhari in 1985 (when Dasuki was a young army officer and Mohammed was the head of military intelligence).

There are questions over a military approach, too. So far, when the military has hit Boko Haram hard the group has escalated its violence and taken indirect revenge against civilians. Even if Buhari does end the Boko Haram insurgency, the conspiracy theorists among his opponents will likely use that against him to buttress their narrative that the insurgency led by northern Islamic insurgents was a political ploy to destabilise the southern Christian President Goodluck Jonathan.

The Niger Delta
The Niger Delta insurgency carries more severe economic consequences than the Boko Haram insurgency in the north
Boko Haram is not the only security menace threatening Nigeria. In 2009, after years of disrupting Nigeria’s oil production, exports and installations, more than 25,000 militants who waged an armed insurgency in the oil-producing Niger Delta areas of southern Nigeria to protest against economic exploitation agreed to lay down their weapons. In exchange for peace, the government promised to grant them amnesty, cash stipends, and training.

The elephant in the Nigerian room is that the government’s amnesty deal with the Niger Delta militants expires later this year, and the militants have threatened to take up arms again if Jonathan is not re-elected. Many militants see Jonathan – who comes from Bayelsa State, the heartland of Nigeria’s oil producing region – as one of their own.

Eighty percent of the Nigerian government’s income comes from oil exports, so the Niger Delta insurgency carries much more severe economic consequences than the Boko Haram in the north. Worryingly, four states in the Delta (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, and Rivers States) alone produce 80% of Nigeria’s oil (out of a total of 36 states in Nigeria).


Four states in the Delta alone produce 80% of Nigeria’s oil.
Although Buhari has said very little about the Niger Delta during his election campaign, the militants have reason for discomfort if Buhari becomes president. Militant leaders have become very rich from government patronage and contracts. Many ex-militants have been awarded security contracts to guard the oil installations they once protested against and attacked. Buhari – a man with a reputation for austerity and a no-nonsense approach to hard graft – is not the type of person to pay people money to not be violent.

In addition Nigeria’s ethnic, geographic, and religious differences can prove explosive, and it’s unlikely that Buhari – a Muslim from northern Nigeria – will treat the southern Christian Niger Delta militants differently to the Islamic Boko Haram , who this week declared their allegiance to Isis. Buhari simply won’t be able to hit one group of insurgents with an iron fist while negotiating with the other. But, if he stops the Niger Delta militants’ payments, then the country could face the daunting prospect of simultaneous insurgencies in both the north and south.

Those who have worked with Buhari describe him as “strong willed” and “completely inflexible”; suggesting that his resolute and unyielding temperament means he will stick to his words and will try to force a result with insurgents on the battlefield, rather than in the negotiating room.

If he becomes president after the vote, postponed until the 28th of March, Buhari will face the unenviable task of inheriting a nightmarish security landscape. But Nigeria’s problems are so deep and complex that they are likely to outlast Jonathan, however long he hopes to cling to power, and Buhari too if he is sucessful.

Max Siollun is a Nigerian historian, writer, and author of the books Oil, Politics and Violence: Nigeria’s Military Coup Culture 1966-1976 and Soldiers of Fortune: a History of Nigeria (1983-1993). Follow him on Twitter @maxsiollun

Nigerian Elections: What If Buhari Wins? By Max Siollun

Gen. Muhammadu Buhari

As the north of the country suffers at the hands of Boko Haram one former military ruler, known for his ‘iron fist’, is enjoying huge levels of support for his presidential bid. Max Siollun assesses what might happen if he wins

With only two weeks to go until the most closely contested presidential election in Nigeria’s history, the biggest issue on the agenda is security. From Boko Haram to the instability of the oil-producing Niger Delta, the political fight between incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and the lead opposition candidate, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, revolves around who will ensure peace and stability.

Buhari is relying on his credentials as a retired general and former military ruler to convince the electorate that he is the man to end the violent Boko Haram insurgency that has killed more than 10,000 Nigerians and displaced 1.5 million others.

But what would Nigeria be like under a Buhari presidency? He has vowed to take the fight to Boko Haram, crush the sect, and “lead from the front”. Expectations of the stern and resolute general are sky high – many think he is tailor made to end Nigeria’s insecurity, but is he the reformed democrat he claims to be?

Boko Haram
The rhetoric of his campaign suggests that the defence policy is likely to change greatly under a Buhari presidency
Senior security figures have repeatedly stated that there is no military solution to the insurgency, and that the government must address the socio-economic causes of Boko Haram. Nigeria’s former chief of defence staff General Martin Luther Agwai has said: “You can never solve any of these problems with military solutions … it is a political issue; it is a social issue; it is an economic issue, and until these issues are addressed, the military can never give you a solution.”