“Sometimes there are no good options.
Nigeria goes to the polls on February 14th to elect the next president,
who will face problems so large—from rampant corruption to a jihadist
insurgency—that they could break the country apart, with dire
consequences for Nigerians and the world.
“And yet, as Africa’s biggest economy
stages its most important election since the restoration of civilian
rule in 1999, and
perhaps since the civil war four decades ago,
Nigerians must pick between the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, who has
proved an utter failure, and the opposition leader, Muhammadu Buhari, a
former military dictator with blood on his hands (see article). The
candidates stand as symbols of a broken political system that makes all
Nigeria’s problems even more intractable.
In this section
“Start with Mr Jonathan, whose People’s
Democratic Party (PDP) has run the country since 1999 and who stumbled
into the presidency on the death of his predecessor in 2010. The PDP’s
reign has been a sorry one. Mr Jonathan has shown little willingness to
tackle endemic corruption.
When the governor of the central bank
reported that $20 billion had been stolen, his reward was to be sacked.
“Worse, on Mr Jonathan’s watch much of
the north of the country has been in flames. About 18,000 people have
died in political violence in recent years, thousands of them in January
in several brutal attacks by Boko Haram, a jihadist group that claims
to have established its “caliphate” in territory as large as Belgium.
Another 1.5m people have fled their homes.
“The insurgency is far from Mr
Jonathan’s southern political heartland and afflicts people more likely
to vote for the opposition. He has shown little enthusiasm for tackling
it, and even less competence.
“Quick to offer condolences to France
after the attack on Charlie Hedbo, Mr Jonathan waited almost two weeks
before speaking up about a Boko Haram attack that killed hundreds,
perhaps thousands, of his compatriots.
“The single bright spot of his rule has
been Nigeria’s economy, one of the world’s fastest-growing. Yet that is
largely despite the government rather than because of it, and falling
oil prices will temper the boom. The prosperity has not been broadly
shared: under Mr Jonathan poverty has increased. Nigerians typically die
eight years younger than their poorer neighbours in nearby Ghana.
Goodbye Jonathan
“Voters have ample cause to send Mr
Jonathan packing. In a country where power has often changed through the
barrel of a gun, the opposition All Progressives Congress has a real
chance of winning through the ballot box.
“Yet its candidate, Mr Buhari, is an
ex-general who, three decades ago, came to power in a coup. His rule was
nasty, brutish and mercifully short. Declaring a ‘war against
indiscipline’, he ordered whip-wielding soldiers to ensure that
Nigerians formed orderly queues.
“His economics, known as Buharism, was
destructive. Instead of letting the currency depreciate in the face of a
trade deficit, he tried to fix prices and ban ‘unnecessary’ imports. He
expelled 700,000 migrants in the delusion that this would create jobs
for Nigerians. He banned political meetings and free speech. He detained
thousands, used secret tribunals and executed people for crimes that
were not capital offences.
“Should a former dictator with such a
record be offered another chance? Surprisingly, many Nigerians think he
should. One reason is that, in a country where ministers routinely wear
wristwatches worth many times their annual salary, Mr Buhari is a
sandal-wearing ascetic with a record of fighting corruption.
“Few nowadays question his commitment to
democracy or expect him to turn autocratic: he has repeatedly stood for
election and accepted the outcome when he lost. He would probably do a
better job of running the country, and in particular of tackling Boko
Haram.
“As a northerner and Muslim, he will
have greater legitimacy among villagers whose help he will need to
isolate the insurgents. As a military man, he is more likely to win the
respect of a demoralised army.
“We are relieved not to have a vote in
this election. But were we offered one we would—with a heavy
heart—choose Mr Buhari. Mr Jonathan risks presiding over Nigeria’s
bloody fragmentation. If Mr Buhari can save Nigeria, history might even
be kind to him.”
Source: The Nation
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