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| Gen. Muhammadu Buhari @Chatham House |
The 2015 general election in Nigeria is
generating a lot of interests within and outside the country. This is
understandable. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and largest
economy, is at a defining moment, a moment that has great implications
beyond the democratic project and beyond the borders of my dear country.
So let me say upfront that the global interest
in Nigeria’s landmark election is not misplaced at all and indeed should
be commended; for this is an election that has serious import for the
world. I urge the international community to continue to focus on
Nigeria at this very critical moment. Given increasing global linkages,
it is in our collective interests that the postponed elections should
hold on the rescheduled dates; that they should be free and fair; that
their outcomes should be respected by all parties; and that any form of
extension, under whichever guise, is unconstitutional and will not be
tolerated.
With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the
dissolution of the USSR in 1991, the collapse of communism and the end
of the Cold War, democracy became the dominant and most preferred system
of government across the globe. That global transition has been aptly
captured as the triumph of democracy and the ‘most pre-eminent political
idea of our time.’ On a personal note, the phased end of the USSR was a
turning point for me. It convinced me that change can be brought about
without firing a single shot.
As you all know, I had been a military head of
state in Nigeria for twenty months. We intervened because we were
unhappy with the state of affairs in our country. We wanted to arrest
the drift. Driven by patriotism, influenced by the prevalence and
popularity of such drastic measures all over Africa and elsewhere, we
fought our way to power. But the global triumph of democracy has shown
that another and a preferable path to change is possible. It is an
important lesson I have carried with me since, and a lesson that is not
lost on the African continent.
The newspaper also reported that between 2000
and 2002, ruling parties in four African countries (Senegal, Mauritius,
Ghana and Mali) peacefully handed over power to victorious opposition
parties. In addition, the proportion of African countries categorized as
not free by Freedom House declined from 59% in 1983 to 35% in 2003.
Without doubt, Africa has been part of the current global wave of
democratisation.
But the growth of democracy on the continent has
been uneven. According to Freedom House, the number of electoral
democracies in Africa slipped from 24 in 2007/2008 to 19 in 2011/2012;
while the percentage of countries categorised as ‘not free’ assuming for
the sake of argument that we accept their definition of “free”
increased from 35% in 2003 to 41% in 2013. Also, there have been some
reversals at different times in Burkina Faso, Central African Republic,
Cote D’Ivoire, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mali, Madagascar,
Mauritania and Togo. We can choose to look at the glass of democracy in
Africa as either half full or half empty.
While you can’t have representative democracy
without elections, it is equally important to look at the quality of the
elections and to remember that mere elections do not democracy make. It
is globally agreed that democracy is not an event, but a journey. And
that the destination of that journey is democratic consolidation – that
state where democracy has become so rooted and so routine and widely
accepted by all actors.
With this important destination in mind, it is
clear that though many African countries now hold regular elections,
very few of them have consolidated the practice of democracy. It is
important to also state at this point that just as with elections, a
consolidated democracy cannot be an end by itself. I will argue that it
is not enough to hold a series of elections or even to peacefully
alternate power among parties.
It is much more important that the promise of
democracy goes beyond just allowing people to freely choose their
leaders. It is much more important that democracy should deliver on the
promise of choice, of freedoms, of security of lives and property, of
transparency and accountability, of rule of law, of good governance and
of shared prosperity. It is very important that the promise embedded in
the concept of democracy, the promise of a better life for the
generality of the people, is not delivered in the breach.
Now, let me quickly turn to Nigeria. As you all
know, Nigeria’s fourth republic is in its 16th year and this general
election will be the fifth in a row. This is a major sign of progress
for us, given that our first republic lasted five years and three
months, the second republic ended after four years and two months and
the third republic was a still-birth. However, longevity is not the only
reason why everyone is so interested in this election.
The major difference this time around is that
for the very first time since transition to civil rule in 1999, the
ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is facing its stiffest opposition
so far from our party the All Progressives Congress (APC). We once had
about 50 political parties, but with no real competition. Now Nigeria is
transitioning from a dominant party system to a competitive electoral
polity, which is a major marker on the road to democratic consolidation.
As you know, peaceful alternation of power through competitive
elections have happened in Ghana, Senegal, Malawi and Mauritius in
recent times. The prospects of democratic consolidation in Africa will
be further brightened when that eventually happens in Nigeria.
But there are other reasons why Nigerians and
the whole world are intensely focussed on this year’s elections, chief
of which is that the elections are holding in the shadow of huge
security, economic and social uncertainties in Africa’s most populous
country and largest economy. On insecurity, there is a genuine cause for
worry, both within and outside Nigeria. Apart from the civil war era,
at no other time in our history has Nigeria been this insecure.
Boko Haram has sadly put Nigeria on the
terrorism map, killing more than 13,000 of our nationals, displacing
millions internally and externally, and at a time holding on to portions
of our territory the size of Belgium. What has been consistently
lacking is the required leadership in our battle against insurgency. I,
as a retired general and a former head of state, have always known about
our soldiers: they are capable, well trained, patriotic, brave and
always ready to do their duty in the service of our country.
You all can bear witness to the gallant role of
our military in Burma, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone,
Liberia, Darfur and in many other peacekeeping operations in several
parts of the world. But in the matter of this insurgency, our soldiers
have neither received the necessary support nor the required incentives
to tackle this problem. The government has also failed in any effort
towards a multi-dimensional response to this problem leading to a
situation in which we have now become dependent on our neighbours to
come to our rescue.
Let me assure you that if I am elected
president, the world will have no cause to worry about Nigeria as it has
had to recently; that Nigeria will return to its stabilising role in
West Africa; and that no inch of Nigerian territory will ever be lost to
the enemy because we will pay special attention to the welfare of our
soldiers in and out of service, we will give them adequate and modern
arms and ammunitions to work with, we will improve intelligence
gathering and border controls to choke Boko Haram’s financial and
equipment channels, we will be tough on terrorism and tough on its root
causes by initiating a comprehensive economic development plan promoting
infrastructural development, job creation, agriculture and industry in
the affected areas.
We will always act on time and not allow problems to
irresponsibly fester, and I, Muhammadu Buhari, will always lead from
the front and return Nigeria to its leadership role in regional and
international efforts to combat terrorism.
On the economy, the fall in prices of oil has
brought our economic and social stress into full relief. After the
rebasing exercise in April 2014, Nigeria overtook South Africa as
Africa’s largest economy. Our GDP is now valued at $510 billion and our
economy rated 26th in the world. Also on the bright side, inflation has
been kept at single digit for a while and our economy has grown at an
average of 7% for about a decade.
But it is more of paper growth, a growth that,
on account of mismanagement, profligacy and corruption, has not
translated to human development or shared prosperity. A development
economist once said three questions should be asked about a country’s
development: one, what is happening to poverty? Two, what is happening
to unemployment? And three, what is happening to inequality?
The answers to these questions in Nigeria show
that the current administration has created two economies in one
country, a sorry tale of two nations: one economy for a few who have so
much in their tiny island of prosperity; and the other economy for the
many who have so little in their vast ocean of misery.
Even by official figures, 33.1% of Nigerians
live in extreme poverty. That’s at almost 60 million, almost the
population of the United Kingdom. There is also the unemployment crisis
simmering beneath the surface, ready to explode at the slightest stress,
with officially 23.9% of our adult population and almost 60% of our
youth unemployed. We also have one of the highest rates of inequalities
in the world.
With all these, it is not surprising that our
performance on most governance and development indicators (like Mo
Ibrahim Index on African Governance and UNDP’s Human Development Index.)
are unflattering. With fall in the prices of oil, which accounts for
more than 70% of government revenues, and lack of savings from more than
a decade of oil boom, the poor will be disproportionately impacted.
In the face of dwindling revenues, a good place
to start the repositioning of Nigeria’s economy is to swiftly tackle two
ills that have ballooned under the present administration: waste and
corruption. And in doing this, I will, if elected, lead the way, with
the force of personal example.
On corruption, there will be no confusion as to
where I stand. Corruption will have no place and the corrupt will not be
appointed into my administration. First and foremost, we will plug the
holes in the budgetary process. Revenue producing entities such as NNPC
and Customs and Excise will have one set of books only. Their revenues
will be publicly disclosed and regularly audited. The institutions of
state dedicated to fighting corruption will be given independence and
prosecutorial authority without political interference.
But I must emphasise that any war waged on
corruption should not be misconstrued as settling old scores or a
witch-hunt. I’m running for President to lead Nigeria to prosperity and
not adversity.
In reforming the economy, we will use savings
that arise from blocking these leakages and the proceeds recovered from
corruption to fund our party’s social investments programmes in
education, health, and safety nets such as free school meals for
children, emergency public works for unemployed youth and pensions for
the elderly.
As a progressive party, we must reform our
political economy to unleash the pent-up ingenuity and productivity of
the Nigerian people thus freeing them from the curse of poverty. We will
run a private sector-led economy but maintain an active role for
government through strong regulatory oversight and deliberate
interventions and incentives to diversify the base of our economy,
strengthen productive sectors, improve the productive capacities of our
people and create jobs for our teeming youths.
In short, we will run a functional economy
driven by a worldview that sees growth not as an end by itself, but as a
tool to create a society that works for all, rich and poor alike. On
March 28, Nigeria has a decision to make. To vote for the continuity of
failure or to elect progressive change. I believe the people will choose
wisely.
In sum, I think that given its strategic
importance, Nigeria can trigger a wave of democratic consolidation in
Africa. But as a starting point we need to get this critical election
right by ensuring that they go ahead, and depriving those who want to
scuttle it the benefit of derailing our fledgling democracy. That way,
we will all see democracy and democratic consolidation as tools for
solving pressing problems in a sustainable way, not as ends in
themselves.
Prospects for Democratic Consolidation in Africa: Nigeria’s Transition
Permit me to close this discussion on a personal
note. I have heard and read references to me as a former dictator in
many respected British newspapers including the well regarded Economist.
Let me say without sounding defensive that dictatorship goes with
military rule, though some might be less dictatorial than others. I take
responsibility for whatever happened under my watch.
I cannot change the past. But I can change the
present and the future. So before you is a former military ruler and a
converted democrat who is ready to operate under democratic norms and is
subjecting himself to the rigours of democratic elections for the
fourth time.
You may ask: why is he doing this? This is a
question I ask myself all the time too. And here is my humble answer:
because the work of making Nigeria great is not yet done, because I
still believe that change is possible, this time through the ballot, and
most importantly, because I still have the capacity and the passion to
dream and work for a Nigeria that will be respected again in the comity
of nations and that all Nigerians will be proud of.
I thank you for listening.
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